Nigel Farage Laughs His Way to Victory in Devastating Blow to the Tories

Reform UK is turning heads this April, with new opinion polls showing Nigel Farage’s party edging ahead just weeks before the Runcorn by-election. According to the latest from Find Out Now, Reform is leading Labour by a solid 6 points — 28% to 22% — while the Conservatives have slumped to third on just 20%. It’s a marked improvement from the last poll, which only gave Reform a narrow 2-point lead.

Techne’s polling paints a slightly different picture, with Reform and Labour tied at 24%. Even so, that’s a shift from Labour’s previous 1-point lead and suggests recent controversy around Rupert Lowe hasn’t done much to damage Reform’s standing. If anything, the party appears to be gaining momentum and is expected to do well in May’s local elections, with Runcorn looking like a potential breakthrough, reported the Express.

Tory’s nerves are showing. MP Esther McVey has even gone as far as suggesting the Conservatives stand aside in Runcorn to avoid splitting the vote – a direct challenge to leader Kemi Badenoch, who has publicly ruled out any kind of pact. McVey’s comments only highlight how Reform’s rise is unsettling the Tory ranks. That unease is deepening as up to 60 local Tory candidates have reportedly defected to Reform ahead of the May elections.

And it’s not just the Tories who are watching Reform’s progress uneasily. A Survation poll of LabourList readers found that more than half expect Labour to lose Runcorn and fear a major loss of seats locally. For a party hoping to position itself as the government-in-waiting, that’s a worrying sign.

Of course, being a challenger party isn’t without its baggage. Reform has had the odd questionable candidate slip through, though they’ve been quick to act when needed. The party still lacks fully fleshed-out policy detail, and Farage continues to divide opinion, especially when it comes to his links with Donald Trump and the recent Lowe saga.

But Reform’s overall credibility seems to be on the up. Farage has managed to create a bit of distance from Trump while still keeping that friendship in his back pocket. Meanwhile, reports around the Lowe situation seem to be leaning in Reform’s favour, with the public largely moving on.

Still, much could change if the Tories decide to replace Badenoch. Whether Reform would fare as well against someone like Robert Jenrick is anyone’s guess. For now, though, the buzz is building, and the Runcorn by-election could be the moment that confirms Reform’s rise isn’t just hype – it’s real.